For the fourth quarter of 2020, BCI decreased by 18.7 index points and reached -28.6 after a significant improvement in the previous quarter. Business confidence deteriorated across all sectors, except retail trade and financial. The largest decrease is observed in the construction sector. The negative change in BCI, for Q4 2020, is driven by significantly pessimistic future expectations.
In the second quarter of 2020, BCI decreased by 53.0 index points reaching an all-time low of -27.2 points. Business confidence deteriorated significantly across all sectors. The largest decline was observed in retail trade, followed by the service industry. The decrease in BCI was driven by worsened past performance as well as drastically pessimistic future expectations.
In the first quarter of 2020, BCI increased by 7.3 index points reaching 25.8. Business confidence improved across all sectors with the exception of the service industry. The largest growth was observed in agriculture, followed by the manufacturing industry. In both sectors, the increase in BCI was driven by improved past performance as well as more optimistic future expectations.
BCI in the fourth quarter of 2019 has increased to 18.5 index points, which is 10.2 index points above the previous quarter. The largest increase in BCI was observed in retail trade, followed by the construction industry. In these sectors, the increase in BCI is driven by both increases in past performance and in raised expectations. On the contrary, agriculture is the one industry where BCI decreased.
BCI in the third quarter of 2019 has deteriorated, dropping to 8.3 index points, which is 18.7 index points below the previous quarter. The largest reduction in BCI was observed in retail trade followed by the financial and construction industries. In these sectors, the decrease in BCI is driven by both decline in past performance and reduced expectations. On the contrary, agriculture is the sole industry where BCI increased.