Indexes
April 2021 | CCI: Georgian consumer confidence rebounds
03
May
2021
Modest increase in confidence – Consumer confidence improved by a slight 0.8 percentage points in April (from -39.0 in March to -38.2 in April). Unlike in several of the previous consecutive months, however, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index did not move in tandem: while there are higher hopes for the future, perceptions of the present have deteriorated (see Chart 1).
What happened? A closer look at the data reveals that the fall in Tbilisi’s confidence contrasted with an increase in the rest of Georgia, which more than outweighed the pessimism of the capital city (see Chart 2).
But the reason for this is not immediately obvious. The week following Orthodox Easter on May 4-11 has been declared a public holiday. During Easter, people usually go to the countryside to visit their families and, this year, the holidays were extended to slow the spread of COVID-19 (especially from increased post-Easter travel). It is therefore possible that people in the countryside became optimistic as economic activity increased more than usual.
Cautious optimism for the future – Both Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia appear to be more optimistic about the future, even though they have divergent feelings about the present; possibly resulting from an accelerated vaccine rollout (see Chart 3 and Chart 4). We also see that the sentiments of Tbilisians on the present and the future now coincide. If we make an analogy to the financial world, this suggests that one should not expect much movement in the short-term. But for the rest of Georgia, is the index for the future higher with some improvement in sight?
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February 2024 | Downward trend continues
31
March
2024
CCI declines further. After a small decline in the Consumer Confidence Index in January, the downward trend continued further in February – the CCI dropped from -15.5 in January to -17.7 in February (by 2.2 index points). On this occasion, the two sub-indices diverged in different directions
January 2024 | A setback in CCI
18
February
2024
A slight trend reversal in the CCI. After a rise in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in December, January saw a small decline – from -14.1 in December to -15.5 in January, dropping by 1.4 index points. This fall is evident in both sub-indices – the Present Situation Index declined by 0.9 points and the Expectations Index by 2 points.
December 2023 | Jump in the CCI
21
January
2024
CCI sees improvement. The Consumer Confidence Index has experienced a significant positive shift, increasing by 6 index points – from -20.1 in November to -14.1 in December. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index contributed to this notable increase; however, the predominant factor was the rise in expectations (the Present Situation Index rose by 4.7 points and the Expectations Index by 7.4).
November 2023 | CCI declines
04
December
2023
The upward trend reversed. The Consumer Confidence Index lost its rising trend and fell by 3.7 index points, moving from -16.4 in October to -20.1 in November. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index contributed to this decline, with the Present Situation Index declining by 5 index points, while the Expectations Index decreased by 2.4 points.
October 2023 | A further increase in the CCI
16
November
2023
The upward trend continues. The Consumer Confidence Index experienced further growth of 3.1 index points – from -19.5 in September to -16.4 in October. This time, the Present Situation Index led the increase by shifting upwards 5.5 points, while the Expectations Index rose more moderately, by 0.5 points.
