ISET

In recent months, ISET‐PI has devoted considerable time to exploring the reasons behind the sharp decline in annual real GDP growth in 2013 (from 6.2% in 2012 to 3.3%). With official data for the whole of 2013 finally becoming available, we are taking this opportunity to revisit our previous conclusions and offer new insights.

The figure below provides a visual representation of the sectoral contributions to the real GDP growth in 2013. The horizontal axis represents the share of each sector in total GDP in 2012, whereas the vertical axis represents growth rates of each sector in 2013. Thus, the area of each rectangular block represents the overall contribution of each sector to real economic growth in 2013 (Under other sectors we included Education; R&D; other community, social and personal service activities) Download the full report

After the reaching negative growth in June 2013 the y-o-y growth of real GDP started to improve slowly and already in November, 2013 the growth rate catch up its previous 2011-2012 higher numbers. According to the GeoStat primary estimations, average growth rate of previous three month (November, December 2013 and January 2014) is approximately 8.1% (see Chart 1).

Does the high numbers of growth translate into stable growth in the future?

One of the corner point of the higher growth is how fast it will trickle down to society. According to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), worked out by ISET-PI, despite the higher growth started from the November, 2013 the overall CCI started deteriorating significantly (see Chart 2). Download the full report

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