ISET

On 4 October 2016, the IMF’s flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) publication updated its projections of the main global macroeconomic indicators. According to the WEO,

“Global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer”.

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According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.

Based on new information, the ISET-PI forecast for Q3 has been lowered from 4.8% to 3.5%. The Q4 forecast remains largely the same at 4.2%. The estimated real GDP growth for the first seven months of 2016 was 2.7% YoY. This is 0.7 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s annual GDP forecast.

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