ISET

Georgia’s real GDP growth constituted a strong 5.5% year over year (YoY) in the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, according to the Geostat figures. Recently this year, IMF and World Bank upped their forecast of economic growth for Georgia from 4.2% to 4.5%. In August, the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has also revised its forecast for 2018 from 4.8% to 5.5%. Meanwhile, ISET-PI expects annual growth in 2018 to be 6.3% YoY.

The second quarter’s buoyant mood is fueled in part by high economic growth rates in neighboring countries reflecting positive dynamics in external factors. The Armenia economy advanced 7.2% YoY in Q2 2018, following a 9.6% growth in the previous quarter. Azerbaijan (+1.3% YoY) and Russia (1.9% YoY) benefited from higher oil prices, while FIFA World Cup had an additional positive impact on the latter.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates of GDP growth, Georgia’s economy continues expanding at a moderately high pace, reaching 5.2% in the first quarter of 2018. GDP growth was mainly driven by an enhanced external environment, improved business confidence, credit expansion and fiscal stimulus. Geostat’s Q1 growth figure is higher than the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) 4.8% projection for annual growth in 2018, but falls behind ISET PI’s annual GDP growth forecast of 5.7%.

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