Georgia’s real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.4% year-on-year, putting the country on the path to achieve 4.7% annual growth in 2017. Export, tourism and money transfer trends were behind the strong showing in Quarter 3.

Supply side pressures will keep inflation above the 4% target in 2017.

The Georgian lari (GEL) depreciated against the trade partner currencies both relative to the previous quarter and relative to Q3 of the last year.

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2017, which fell short of the 5.8% that had been expected by ISET-PI GDP forecast made in July. This shortfall was driven not by weak performance, but overly optimistic predictions of ISET-PI’s empirical model, influenced by high actual growth in the first quarter (5.1% YoY). It is notable that the Georgian government’s target of the real GDP growth (4%) does not seem to be overambitious; the National Bank of Georgia also leaves its forecast for annual growth unchained in the latest monetary policy report (August 2017).

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