ISET

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 2.2% year over year (YoY) in 2016. This result fell behind the World Bank’s, IMF’s and EBRD’s last growth projections of 3.4%. The NBG’s 3.5% growth projection from November also overestimated Georgia’s economic growth in 2016.

The ISET-PI annual GDP growth forecast made in June was more realistic. At that time, we predicted a 2.7% annual growth rate in the worst-case scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case. However, in November, as growth rates slowed down, the ISET-PI GDP forecast predicted 2.7% YoY growth in 2016.

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According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 1.5% in September 2016, while the growth rate for Q3 stood at 2.2% year over year (YoY). The estimated third quarter growth was thus 1.3 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. One should note that the data from September are likely to include a very high services component (revenues from the tourism sector). Therefore, the quarterly growth number is likely to be revised upward in the future as more data comes in.

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