ISET

Among the pleasant surprises early this year, were the figures for Georgia’s economic growth in 2017. According to GeoStat estimates, Georgia’s real GDP grew by 4.8% year over year (YoY) in 2017. This result moderately surpassed the ADB, EBRD, IMF and World Bank’s last growth projections of 4.2%, 3.9% 4.0%, and 3.5% growth, respectively. NBG 4.5% growth projection also slightly underestimated Georgia’s economic growth in 2017. The real winner in this race was ISET-PI’s annual GDP growth forecast. In November 2017, we predicted 4.7% YoY growth, and since then our updated forecasts indicated 4.8% real GDP growth.

Georgia’s real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.4% year-on-year, putting the country on the path to achieve 4.7% annual growth in 2017. Export, tourism and money transfer trends were behind the strong showing in Quarter 3.

Supply side pressures will keep inflation above the 4% target in 2017.

The Georgian lari (GEL) depreciated against the trade partner currencies both relative to the previous quarter and relative to Q3 of the last year.

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