ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2019. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019. The Q1 growth stands at 4.7% , which is only 0.4 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast.

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019 stands at 4.7% - up from 4.6% in April.

Based on March data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.6% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.9% real GDP growth in 2019.

According to the recent Monetary Policy Report (May 2019), the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) forecast of real GDP growth remained unchanged at 5% in 2019. According to NBG, annual real GDP growth this year will be driven by improved trade balance, and increased consumption and investment spending supported by capital expenditures of the government and a moderate growth of loans.

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