ISET

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2019. These are the main features of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2019 stands at 4.3%. The second estimate of second quarter growth forecast now stands at 4.6%.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2019. These are the main features of this month’s release:

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018, and their estimated growth stands at 4.8%, which is 1.1 percentage point above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.

Utilizing the latest data, real annual GDP growth in 2018 amounted to 4.8%. It is notable that by March of 2018, our model predicted 4.8% real growth in the “middle-of-the-road” scenario that now perfectly coincides with the official statistics. Moreover, our annual GDP forecasts of 4.7% (since November) and 4.6% (since December), equally were revealed to be quite accurate.

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018 (final update), and the first quarter of 2019. These are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 estimate was revised downward to 3.7% (0.3 percentage points lower than the previous estimate).

The real GDP growth rate reached only 2.2% year-on-year for November 2018. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first eleven months of 2018 was revised downward to 4.7%.

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