ISET

A nationally representative sample of 358 Georgians, interviewed in early May 2019, revealed that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) improved by 4.3 index points, from -20.8 in April to -16.5 in May. A similar pattern was observed in both sub-indices from May: the Present Situation Index rose by 3.8 points (from -23.3 to -19.5) and the Expectations Index by 4.8 points (from -18.4 to -13.6). Table 1, displayed below, highlights which questions in particular show improvement in Georgian consumer confidence for May: expected unemployment, current ability to save and to make major purchases, expected inflation, etc. Looking at the bigger picture, however, one can see that the slight uptick in the CCI is a continuation of a stable trend that began around two years ago, in May 2017. Observing the Overall CCI, one can notice that the index seems to have reached a level of local equilibrium. Judging from past CCI analyses, upward and downward swings in the index were driven mostly by political events, such as parliamentary elections, and by important external events, such as a regional currency crisis. Thus, given that the country’s political and economic life may have reached a form of equilibrium, the current stability in consumers’ sentiment is justified.

According to a nationally representative sample of 320 Georgians, interviewed in early April 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased by nearly two index points, from -18.9 in March to -20.8 in April. A similar pattern was observed in one of the sub-indices: the Expectations Index declined by 4.3 index points (from -14.1 to -18.4) compared to March, while the Present Situation Index experienced a slight improvement, by 0.3 index points (from -23.6 to -23.3). Table 1, displayed below, elucidates which particular questions were affected by various expectations and are responsible for the drop in the Expectations Index: in both expected inflation and expected unemployment.

According to a nationally representative sample of 339 Georgians interviewed in early March 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slightly improved by 0.3 index points, from -19.2 in February to -18.9 in March. A similar pattern was observed in both sub-indices: the Present Situation Index increased by 0.2 (from -23.8 to -23.6), and the Expectations Index by 0.4 index points (from -14.6 to -14.1) compared to February. It is worthwhile to mention that spring season seems to affect consumer confidence positively since 2015 (although data for April 2019 are not accessible yet).

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